ETF Predictions
Introduction An exchange traded fund ( ETF ) is a fund that owns multiple underlying securities. A popular example is the SPY ETF which tracks the S&P 500 index which itself tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States. In the long term the stock market always goes up and investing in ETF's such as SPY is a lucrative passive investment that leverages this fact. Diversification is an important tool for an investor to minimize risks of owning individual stocks and ETFs accomplish this by owning multiple underlying securities. If fact in the 30 year period, ETF's such as SPY and VTSAX outperform 99% of portfolio managers . Thus predicting how ETF's will change over a given time horizon will improve our returns, possibly far more than the average 6%-10% annual return generated by the popular ETFs. However that's easier said than done. The efficient market hypothesis ( EMH ) says that it is impossible to consistently generate profits ( Fam...
