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Showing posts with the label Hypothesis testing

ETF Predictions

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Introduction An exchange traded fund ( ETF ) is a fund that owns multiple underlying securities. A popular example is the SPY ETF which tracks the S&P 500 index  which itself tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States. In the long term the stock market always goes up and investing in ETF's such as SPY is a lucrative passive investment that leverages this fact. Diversification is an important tool for an investor to minimize risks of owning individual stocks and ETFs accomplish this by owning multiple underlying securities. If fact in the 30 year period, ETF's such as SPY and VTSAX  outperform 99% of portfolio managers  . Thus predicting how ETF's will change over a given time horizon will improve our returns, possibly far more than the average 6%-10% annual return generated by the popular ETFs. However that's easier said than done. The efficient market hypothesis ( EMH ) says that it is impossible to consistently generate profits ( Fam...

Northwind Dataset - Statistical Analysis

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Northwind Dataset - Statistical Analysis Data description The data comes form a fictional "Northwind trading" company that seems to sell food products and beverages. The data is stored in the form of a SQL database in multiple tables. The schema of the SQL database is shown below. We will perform statistical tests to investigate various questions of business interest. The code for the analysis can be found here . Questions investigated Does discount amount have a statistically significant effect on the quantity of a product in an order? If so, at what level(s) of discount? Do sales get better year on year? Does the month when the products were ordered matter?  Is there a standout employee in terms of the distribution from which quantities sold are drawn ? Are there employees who are shipping their orders significantly late? Are there regions that are growing or decreasing in overall sales ? Are there product categories that are growing or decreasing in ove...